Life Chances

Max Weber used the term life chances for the odds of good or bad outcomes that come with a class position. Set the circumstances of a birth below. Every chart on this page shows what published data on millions of real Americans say about a child born into those circumstances. Nobody chooses the first three settings: parents’ income, race and ethnicity, and gender. The fourth, education, is what sociologists call achieved, and the second section shows how strongly parents’ income shapes it.

Parents’ income

Race and ethnicity

Gender

Education they end up with

Income mobility

Where this child is likely to land

Bottom fifthSecondMiddleFourthTop fifth

Where the average child of each group lands (mean income percentile reached in adulthood)

Source: Chetty, Hendren, Kline, and Saez 2014 (transition matrix, tax records of 40 million families). Chetty, Hendren, Jones, and Porter 2020 (race, 20 million children). Race data cover Black, White, Hispanic, Asian, and American Indian children. Asian children in these data show higher upward mobility than all other groups.

School and what it pays

The education ladder

College attendance climbs almost in a straight line with parents’ income: from about 26 percent of children at the very bottom to about 94 percent at the very top. The marker shows this child’s starting point.

Children of the top 1 percent are 77 times more likely to attend an Ivy-plus college than children from the bottom fifth.

What finishing each level pays (median weekly earnings, US workers 25 and over, 2024)

Sources: Chetty et al. 2014 (attendance gradient), Chetty, Friedman, Saez, Turner, and Yagan, Mobility Report Cards (Ivy-plus), US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Education Pays 2024.

Health and years of life

How long this child can expect to live

Pick two circumstances to see together (a grayed-out option cannot be shown; click it to read why)

Between 2001 and 2014, the richest 5 percent of Americans gained about 3 years of life expectancy. The poorest 5 percent gained roughly none.

Sources: CDC/NCHS, United States Life Tables 2023. Chetty et al., JAMA 2016 and its public data tables at healthinequality.org (income and life expectancy, 1.4 billion tax records). IHME, Lancet Public Health 2024 (education gap).

Prison and wealth

Incarceration and family wealth

Percent of men incarcerated on a single day (April 1, 2010, ages 27 to 32, by parents’ income)

What the typical family owns (median family wealth, 2022)

The typical white family holds about 6 times the wealth of the typical Black family and about 5 times the wealth of the typical Hispanic family. American Indian families are grouped into an "other" category in this survey, with a median near $63,000.

Sources: Chetty, Hendren, Jones, and Porter 2020 (incarceration). Federal Reserve, Survey of Consumer Finances 2022 (wealth).

Talk about it

Weber’s term life chances means the odds of good or bad outcomes that come with a class position. Pick one chart in the lab and use its numbers to explain the term in your own words.
Of every 100 children raised in the top fifth, 36.5 were still in the top fifth around age 30. Name two things high-income parents pass on to their children (for example, money, connections, or help with school), and say at what age each one matters most.
A 40-year-old man with income in the top fifth can expect to live to about 85.4. A man in the bottom fifth can expect to live to about 76.4. Name two ways that higher income could lead to a longer life.
Workers with a bachelor’s degree earn a median of $1,543 a week, compared with $930 for workers with only a high school diploma. Which explanation do you find most convincing: what people learn in college, what a diploma tells employers, or the people students meet? Explain your choice.
Black and white women raised in families with the same income grow up to earn about the same. Black and white men do not. Among men raised in the poorest families, 21.0% of Black men and 6.4% of white men were incarcerated on a single day in 2010. How might incarceration help explain why the gap shows up mainly among men?
The typical white family holds about $285,000 in wealth, and the typical Black family holds about $44,900. Name one way wealth passes from parents to children, and explain how that could keep a wealth gap going across generations.
Pick one figure from the lab. How would the functionalist view (Davis and Moore) explain it, and how would the conflict view explain it?
Every figure in the lab describes the odds for large groups of people. What can these figures tell you about one person’s life, and what can they not tell you?